题　目：The POP Premium：Populism and the cross-section of stock returns

嘉　宾：钱言 助理教授 中央财经大学

主持人：许文健 副教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时　间：2026年11月4日（周三）10:00-11:30

地　点：讲座：上海交通大学 徐汇校区安泰浩然楼308

内容简介:

We construct a Populism Index (POP) from over one million Wall Street Journal articles from 1984 to 2024 using large language models to quantify populism-related sentiment in U.S. media. Firm’s exposure to changes in populist sentiment is a priced risk in the cross-section of equity returns: stocks with low POP betas earn significantly higher returns, yielding an annualized excess return of about 8%, unexplained by standard risk factors. The premium exists before the 2016 surge in populism, persists under both Republican and Democratic administrations, highlighting that populism represents a distinct, state-dependent source of systematic risk in equity markets.

演讲人简介：

钱言，中央财经大学金融学院助理教授，博士毕业于美国北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校。主要研究方向为资产定价、金融计量和国际金融。学术成果发表于期刊Journal of Financial Economics，并参与多项国家级课题。

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