题　目：Dissecting the International Transmissions of U.S. Monetary Policy

嘉　宾：吴文斌 副教授 复旦大学

主持人：张大可 助理教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时　间：2025年12月3日（周三）13:30-15:00

地　点：上海交通大学 徐汇校区安泰浩然楼306

内容简介:

This paper studies the international transmissions of U.S. monetary policy, distinguishing between expected changes and unexpected shocks. We find that both pegged and floating exchange rate regimes without capital controls respond similarly to U.S. monetary shocks, consistent with Rey’s “dilemma.” However, only pegged regimes react to expected policy changes, aligning with the Mundell-Fleming “trilemma.” Further empirical analysis and a small open economy model suggest that preemptive private-sector investment adjustments in floating regimes explain this divergence. Our findings contribute to the debate on the global effects of U.S. monetary policy, as the importance of its expected component has likely increased.

演讲人简介：

复旦大学国际金融学院副教授，美国加州大学圣地亚哥分校经济学博士（2017）。复旦大学国际金融学院PT MBA项目学术主任。在国际经济学权威期刊发表多篇文章，如JME, JIE等。研究成果被海外机构如VOXEU，Ideas for India等转载，并获得了上海市第16届哲学社会科学优秀成果奖，入选上海市“浦江人才”（2018），复旦大学卓学人才。

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