题　目：The Firm Balance Sheet Channel of Uncertainty Shocks

嘉　宾：周文涛 助理教授 Michigan State University

主持人：张澄宇 助理教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时　间：2025年6月18日（周三）10:00-11:30

地　点：上海交通大学 徐汇校区安泰浩然楼306室

内容简介:

This paper studies the transmission of macro uncertainty shocks through firm balance sheet adjustments. Empirically, I find that firms respond to increased macro uncertainty by reducing capital investment and debt while increasing cash holdings, with the extent of these adjustments shaped by firms’ ex-ante indebtedness. I explain the empirical patterns using a quantitative heterogeneous firm model in which financial frictions induce firm precautionary behavior. In the model, higher uncertainty increases the risk of liquidity shortages, and thus firms reduce debt and investment while accumulating cash to mitigate such risk. I find that elevated macro uncertainty, via the transmission mechanism, triggers sharp aggregate output and productivity drops with increased micro dispersion and worsened capital misallocation, accounting for key features of U.S. recessions. These impacts are particularly strong along with financial crises during which firm precautionary behavior further intensifies, leading to deep and persistent recessions. I show that credit interventions, though barely counteracting the impact of first-moment shocks, can significantly attenuate the impact of uncertainty shocks, uncovering a novel stabilizing role of credit policies in recessions.

演讲人简介：

Wentao Zhou is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Michigan State University. His research uses quantitative models and microdata to understand how financial frictions and firm expectations influence firm dynamics, resource allocation, and business cycle fluctuations. Dr. Zhou earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 2024.

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