嘉    宾:  Kenneth Chan  助理教授，北京大学汇丰商学院

主持人:  林熙之  助理教授, 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时    间:  2026年 11月18日（周三）14:00-15:30

地    点:  上海交通大学徐汇校区安泰经济与管理学院A503

内容简介：This paper presents an axiomatic characterization of Bayes' rule and the Grether (1980) updating rule that is centered around the preservation of the Monotone Likelihood Ratio Property (MLRP). I show that Bayesian updating can be characterized by the preservation of MLRP from signals and the martingale property, while the Grether (1980) model is characterized by the preservation of MLRP from both signals and priors. This framework allows us to identify a class of non-Bayesian updating rules where we can obtain useful comparative statics across different signal realizations and prior beliefs in canonical belief updating problems. I also conducted an experiment to test the axioms that can be used to characterize Bayes' rule to identify why people are non-Bayesian. I find that subjects broadly comply with axioms about the preservation of MLRP, providing validation for the widely used Grether (1980) model.

演讲人简介：Kenneth is an Assistant Professor at Peking University HSBC Business School. He is a behavioral and experimental economist with an interest in belief updating, information economics, and health economics.