主持人：  喻   洋 副教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时    间：  2026年1月5日（周一）14:00-15:30

地    点:  上海交通大学徐汇校区安泰经济与管理学院A507

内容简介：This paper develops a framework for empirically estimating aggregate labor supply across occupations with flexible substitution patterns and applies it to study the incidence of automation and artificial intelligence in the U.S. labor market. Central to the analysis is the distance-dependent elasticity of substitution (DIDES), where worker substitutability between occupations declines with their distance in skill space. By mapping 306 occupations into cognitive, manual, and interpersonal skill dimensions, we estimate a low-dimensional latent skill model that preserves granular substitution patterns. We show that both automation and artificial intelligence cluster in skill-adjacent occupations, constraining employment adjustment and amplifying wage effects: 20–50% of labor demand shocks pass through to wages, while mobility recovers only 20% of wage losses.

演讲人简介：Tianyu Fan is a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at Yale University, specializing in macroeconomics, political economy, and international trade. His research combines theoretical modeling and empirical analysis to study how technological change, particularly automation and artificial intelligence, and geopolitical forces shape labor markets, inequality, and economic prosperity within and across countries. His job market paper develops a new framework for analyzing the labor market incidence of technological change.