主持人： 段伊戈  助理教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时    间：2025年11月19日（周三）14:00-15:30

地    点:  上海交通大学徐汇校区安泰经济与管理学院B207 

内容简介：

This paper exploits the termination of China’s One Child Policy as a quasi-experimental shock to examine how revealed disparities in spousal fertility preferences affect childbearing and divorce decisions. The policy relaxation gave couples with one child a second chance to fulfill fertility intentions, activating latent gendered fertility preferences that had been institutionally neutralized: husbands prefer more children when the firstborn is a daughter, while wives’ preferences show no variation by firstborn gender. Using panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (2010-2020), we find that relative to couples with firstborn sons, those with firstborn daughters experienced both higher probability of second births and, among couples who did not have a second child, higher probability of divorce. We develop a collective household model with limited commitment showing that fertility policy changes asymmetrically increase husbands’ outside options, triggering intrahousehold renegotiation. Our empirical evidence on resource reallocation within marriages and husbands’ post-divorce remarriage and fertility patterns supports these theoretical predictions.

演讲人简介：

林琳，香港中文大学经济学博士，现担任中国人民大学劳动人事学院讲师，主要研究领域为应用微观经济学，包括劳动经济学、家庭经济学和健康经济学，其研究成果发表于 Journal of Development Economics。此外，她还关注生育政策对于家庭决策的影响，相关成果现于 Economic Journal 和 Quantitative Economics 返修。

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