主持人：Yuta Suzuki 助理教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时    间：2025年11月14日（周五）14:00-15:30

地    点:  上海交通大学徐汇校区安泰经济与管理学院A507

内容简介：

This paper examines how fiscal windfalls from interest rate cuts influenced resource allocation during Japan's Lost Decade (1993-2002). We document two key empirical patterns: a shift of resources from private to government sectors and a deteriorating spatial allocation of government investments. We develop a politico-economic theory where fiscal windfalls induce allocation to be more politically driven than efficiency-oriented.  This theoretical mechanism is incorporated into a quantitative model calibrated to the Japanese economy.  We conduct counterfactuals to assess the quantitative effects of fiscal windfalls.  If the government transfers these windfalls to households while maintaining the same debt trajectory, we find lower government consumption and investment levels, as well as a much improved spatial allocation of government capital, which would have increased aggregate TFP and welfare significantly during the Lost Decade.

演讲人简介：

Zheng (Michael) SONG is Wei Lun Professor of Economics and the Department Head at the Department of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK). He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society and a Senior Fellow of Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER). His research focuses on Chinese economy and macroeconomics. His papers were published by leading academic journals including American Economic Review, Econometrica and Journal of Political Economy. He won Sunyefang Economic Science Award in 2013. He is an Associate Editor of Econometrica, Journal of International Economics, and Review of Finance. He is a Co-Director of CUHK-Tsinghua Joint Research Center for Chinese Economy, a Co-Director of CUHK-Zhejiang University Joint Research Center for Digital Economy, a Distinguished Visiting Professor at Tsinghua University and Zhejiang University, and special-term professor at Peking University. He sits on Business Studies Panel of Research Grants Council of Hong Kong (RGC). He is a Currency Board Sub-Committee member of the Hong Kong Exchange Fund Advisory Committee. He is also an academic advisor to Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research.