主持人： 欧声亮 副教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时    间：2025年 11月12日（周三）14:00-15:30

地    点:  上海交通大学徐汇校区安泰经济与管理学院A403

内容简介：

We develop a novel theory of belief disagreement grounded in imperfect memory. When agents observe identical signals but recall them probabilistically, systematic disagreement can arise even in the absence of heterogeneous information. We investigate this phenomenon using a simple model in which agents form beliefs about the unobserved value of an asset based on received signals. Under imperfect memory, we find that: 1. Disagreement about the asset’s value increases with the degree of information ambivalence, whereas ambivalence has no effect under perfect memory. 2. Disagreement decreases with signal salience, defined as the probability of signal recall. 3. A contextual cue has a non-monotonic effect on disagreement: it reduces disagreement when it enhances the recall of dominant signals. However, when non-dominant signals are cued, a weak cue increases disagreement, while a sufficiently strong cue can again reduce it. Survey evidence on stock return disagreement supports the model’s predictions, and we conduct online experiments to further validate these findings. The model is broadly applicable across various domains, including disagreement over financial and macroeconomic variables, between experts and non-experts, in political economy, and in opinion formation within political science.

演讲人简介：

旷裴博士现为澳门大学经济学系副教授。他在德国法兰克福歌德大学获得经济学博士学位，其主要研究方向为宏观经济学、货币经济学、期望与信念等。论文发表于《NBER Macroeconomics Annual》、《Journal of Monetary Economics》、《Journal of the European Economic Association》、《European Economic Review》、《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》、《Economic Theory》等国内外顶级或权威期刊。