题    目：Who Wants the Second Child? The Effect of the Relaxation of One-Child Policy in China

嘉    宾：丸山士行 教授 暨南大学

主持人：Suzuki Yuta 助理教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时    间：2024年5月15日（周三）14:00-15:30

地    点:  上海交通大学徐汇校区安泰经济与管理学院B207

内容简介：

This study examines the effect of easing China’s One-Child Policy on fertility rates, leveraging staggered policy relaxations across provinces and demographic groups from the 1980s to 2016. Before the nationwide shifts to the partial two-child policy in 2014 and the two-child policy in 2016, eligibility for a second child was based on various criteria set by local governments, such as ethnicity, first child’s gender, and household registration. Using this as a quasi-natural experiment, we form a generalized difference-in-differences strategy for more precise causal effects than before. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we find the policy relaxation led to a temporary increase in second-child births, dissipating after four years, indicating no long-term fertility boost despite an initial surge, suggesting that the relaxation only enabled those previously constrained to seize the opportunity. The effect was more pronounced among women of higher socioeconomic status, those with greater intrafamily bargaining power, younger women with less elderly care responsibilities, and residents in areas with lenient historical birth control policies and a culture of gender equality. These results highlight the intricate relationship between policy, socioeconomic status, and cultural norms in fertility decisions, calling for designing fertility policies that address the needs of unaffected couples.

演讲人简介：

丸山士行(Shiko Maruyama)，暨南大学经济与社会研究院教授。丸山教授在 2007年于美国西北大学获得经济学博士学位，曾就职于新南威尔士大学和澳大利亚悉尼科技大学。他的专业领域是健康经济学、家庭经济学、人口经济学、微观计量经济学、公共经济学、产业组织经济学以及劳动经济学。其研究主题包括生育趋势、健康、保险、医疗保健费用、非正式护理、长期体重指数趋势以及出生状况的影响等。丸山教授的研究成果发表于 International Economic Review, Journal of EconometricsQuantitative Economics 以及 Journal of Health Economics 等国际知名期刊。丸山教授目前担任 Japanese Economic Review的共同主编，HealthEconomics 的副主编，以及国际卫生经济学协会(IHEA)董事会成员，同时也是年度亚洲计量经济学和卫生经济学研讨会(AWEHE)的主要组织者之一。