讲座：Incorporating the Sunk Cost Fallacy into Designing Price Discounts – A Field Experiment
题 目：Incorporating the Sunk Cost Fallacy into Designing Price Discounts – A Field Experiment
演讲人：Dr. Zhang Xing, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich
主持人：江明 助理教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院经济系
时 间：2018年 10 月 10 日（周三） 14:30-16:00
地 点：上海交通大学 徐汇校区新上院 S409 室
People commit the sunk cost fallacy when their decisions are influenced by costs that have already been incurred and cannot be reversed. The implication of the sunk cost fallacy is that the price discount may reduce consumption. Recently the gambling- or lottery-type price discount is drawing more and more attention to its impact on consumer buying decision. However, it is unclear how this probabilistic price discount affects consumption when the sunk cost fallacy is implicated, and how it differs from the sure price discount with equal expected monetary value. In a large-scale randomized field experiment conducted in a museum, we compare the impact of these two price discount schemes on consumption behavior – the length of time customers stayed in the museum. We found that the length of stay is more likely to be reduced by the probabilistic price discount than by the sure price discount. In another treatment condition, we offered the customer a choice between the probabilistic price discount and the sure price discount. We found that customers in the condition with choice stayed longer than the other two conditions without choice. Overall, the results are consistent with a diminishing sensitivity to sunk cost and a reference-dependent sunk cost effect.
Dr. Zhang Xing is a postdoctoral researcher in the Singapore-ETH Center at ETH Zürich. His research lies at the intersection between behavioral economics and marketing. Using lab and field experiments, his research focuses on how firms and policy maker should incorporate psychological biases in pricing policy and choice menu design. His research appeared in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A and Management Science. Dr. Zhang Xing received his Ph.D from the National University of Singapore.