讲座：Uncertainty, Imperfect Information and Learning in the International Market
题 目：Uncertainty, Imperfect Information and Learning in the International Market
演讲人：Chang Sun, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Business and Economics
The University of Hong Kong
主持人：戴 亮 助理教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院金融系
时 间：2018年10月10日 14:30-16:00
地 点：上海交通大学 徐汇校区安泰楼B1516
Using a unique data set of Japanese multinational firms' sales forecasts, we provide new evidence on imperfect information and learning at the firm level in the international market. We document three new facts concerning forecasts and forecast errors (FEs). First, firms make more precise forecasts as they become more experienced in the destination market, either through multinational production (MP) or exporting prior to MP entry. Second, past FEs are positively correlated with current forecasts as well as future FEs, which suggests the existence of imperfect information. Third, the correlation declines with firms' experience in the destination market. We then build and quantify a dynamic industry equilibrium model of trade and MP to match these facts and other salient features of firm dynamics. Counterfactual analysis shows that imperfect information enlarges productivity gains from liberalizing trade, and more so when multiple production modes are available.
Dr. Chang SUN obtained his bachelor’s degree from Tsinghua University, and a Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University. He joined the Faculty of Business and Economics at the University of Hong Kong in 2017. He specializes in the area of international trade. His current research focuses on multinational production and its impact on the global economy.