讲座：Effects of Rescheduling on Patient No-Show Behavior in Outpatient Clinics
题 目: Effects of Rescheduling on Patient No-Show Behavior in Outpatient Clinics
讲座嘉宾: Jingui Xie, Associate Professor, School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China
主持人: 宋颖达 博士，安泰经济与管理学院管理科学系
地 点： 上海交通大学徐汇校区 新上院S204室
We study the effects of rescheduling on no-show behavior in an outpatient appointment system for both new and follow-up patients. Previous literature has primarily focused on new patients and investigated the role of waiting time on no-show probability. We offer a more nuanced understanding of this costly phenomenon. Using comprehensive clinical data, we demonstrate that for follow-up patients, their no-show probability decreases by 10.9 percentage points if their appointments were rescheduled at their own request, but increases by 6.2 percentage points if they were rescheduled by the clinic. New patients, in contrast, are less sensitive to who initiates rescheduling. Their no-show probability decreases by 2.3 percentage points if their appointments were rescheduled at their own request, and increases by 3.2 percentage points --- but is statistically insignificant at the 10% level --- if they were rescheduled by the clinic. New patients are more concerned about waiting time compared to follow-up patients. For patients whose appointments were not rescheduled, new patients' no show probability decreases by 1.3 percentage points if their waiting time is reduced by one week, but the waiting time has a small and statistically insignificant effect on follow-up patients' no show probability. Using data-driven simulation, we conduct counterfactual investigation of the impact of allowing active rescheduling on the performance of appointment systems. In particular, allowing the flexibility of patient rescheduling can reduce the overall no-show rate and increase system utilization, but at a cost of increased wait time for new patients. If patients are able to reschedule at least one week in advance, new patients' wait time is largely reduced, while the no-show rate remains the same; this is equivalent to the effect of a 5% increase in clinic's capacity.
Dr. Jingui Xie is an associate professor in the School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China (USTC). Prior to joining USTC, he was a Research Fellow at National University of Singapore (NUS), a Chazen Research Scholar at Columbia Business School. He received a Ph.D. in Management Science and Engineering from Tsinghua University. He specializes in healthcare management. His works have been published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, Naval Research Logistics, Queueing Systems, Operations Research Letters, International Journal of Production Research, Annals of Operations Research, Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Epidemiology and Infectious. He is an ad hoc reviewer of many international journals. He is a member of Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences (INFORMS). He is the director of USTC Health Service Research Centre (http://bs.ustc.edu.cn/hsrc/).