讲座：An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Crop Yield and Cropland Acreage: Implications for the Impact of Climate Change
题 目: An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Crop Yield and Cropland Acreage:
Implications for the Impact of Climate Change
讲座嘉宾: Haixiao Huang, Senior Analyst with NV Energy, USA
主持人: 张鹏翥 教授、系主任，安泰经济与管理学院管理信息系统系
地 点：上海交通大学徐汇校区 新上院S301室
We conduct an econometric analysis of the factors influencing U.S. crop yields and acres using U.S. county level data from 1977 to 2007 and evaluate the likely effects of future climate change on U.S. crop yields based on the projected climate changes by IPCC (2001) and our estimated parameters. As compared to other studies, our study includes a more comprehensive set of climate and socioeconomic variables, more recent and less aggregated county level data, and more sophisticated econometric panel data approaches. We find that corn, soybean and wheat yields all respond positively to their own prices and that corn and wheat yields respond negatively to fertilizer prices. Substitute acres have a positive impact on corn yield but no significant impact on soybean yield. Marginal acres have a negative impact on corn yield but its negative impact on soybean yield is insignificant. Corn yield increases with an accelerating rate while soybean and wheat yields grow at a relatively small but steady pace over the second half of our study period. We also find that climate variables have significant impact on the yields for all three crops and high temperature can lead to reduced crop yields while more precipitation will just enhance corn and soybean yields. Our results regarding the impacts of precipitation on wheat yields are inconclusive: changes in precipitation could possibly increase or decrease wheat yields.
Haixiao Huang is Senior Analyst with NV Energy. He is the lead analyst responsible for complex demand side resource forecast and optimization modeling and energy conservation program economic evaluation. Before joining NV Energy, he was researcher with the Energy Biosciences Institute at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. His research interests include applied econometrics, energy demand and supply modeling, alternative fuel economics, climate change economics, environmental and agricultural economics, and the relationship between trade and the environment. He has widely published in Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Energy Policy, Climate Change Economics, Review of Agricultural Economics, among other academic and professional journals and meetings. He holds a PhD in Resource Economics from West Virginia University, an MS in Systems Engineering and a BS in Mine Construction both from Shandong University of Science and Technology.